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Backtesting Basics

Test your strategy on historical data before risking real money

4 sections · 3 quiz questions · ~5 min read

What Is Backtesting?

Backtesting means applying your trading strategy to historical price data to see how it would have performed. It's like a flight simulator for traders — you practice without risk to build confidence and refine your rules.

Manual Backtesting

Scroll back on your chart, cover the right side, and step forward candle by candle. Apply your entry rules. Record each trade as if it were live. You need at least 50-100 trades for statistically meaningful results.

Key Metrics to Track

Track: Win Rate (%), Average Win vs Average Loss, Profit Factor (gross profit ÷ gross loss), Maximum Drawdown, and Total Return. A strategy with 45% win rate and 1:2 RR can still be very profitable.

Common Backtesting Mistakes

Curve fitting (over-optimizing to past data), ignoring spreads/commissions, testing too few trades, and hindsight bias (seeing what happened next while deciding entries). Be honest and strict with your rules.
Quick check

Did it stick?

Try to answer each one before you peek at the explanation.

1

How many trades should you have for a statistically meaningful backtest?

2

Curve fitting means your strategy is perfectly optimized for live trading.

3

Match each metric to what it measures:

Win RatePercentage of trades that profit
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline
Profit FactorGross profit ÷ gross loss